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Hybarger & Associates

Serving Small to Mid-Size Community Banks for over Thirty Years

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    Banking Insights

    Recession Indicator ~ The Inverted Yield Curve

    8/27/2019

     
    Picture
    Today we reached a definitive milestone, as it relates to the 10yr / 2 Yr Inverted Yield Curve.

    ​Although it has inverted several times during the past week, the inversion has been for only a short period of time.


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    The Potential Impact of a Negative Interest Rate Policy

    8/23/2019

     
    Picture
    This is not something that we are projecting, and it is certainly not something that we are advocating, but there is increasing talk among US official about the possibility of a Negative Interest Rate Policy in the United States, most recently by the President of the New York Fed.
     
    With the outlook for the US Economy at least having strong headwinds in the future, it is wise to realize that the Fed just does not have enough “firepower” (just 200 more basis points, compared to a traditional 400 bp’s plus) to get a recessionary economy turned around with traditional Monetary Policy tools.


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    Strategic Shift

    8/19/2019

     
    Sea change
    We have clearly experienced a “sea change” as it relates to Rates during the past few months. This is evidenced by the fact that virtually all sectors of the US Treasury Yield Curve, beyond one year, are down by 125 – 150bps.

    The Fed’s recent decision to lower the Fed Funds Rate by 25bps is just the latest episode in the drama that has been playing out, especially over the past few months.


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    • Who We Are
      • Firm's Founder and History
      • Officers
    • Who We Serve
      • Who Are Our Clients
    • What We Do
      • Asset / Liability Management >
        • Budgeting
        • Performance Analysis
        • Forecasting
        • Quality Control
        • ALM Board Reporting >
          • The Directors' Financial Digest
          • The Executive Management Series
          • The Account Level Forecasting Series
        • Alternative Planning Scenarios
      • Interest Rate Risk >
        • Reporting for Interest Rate Risk
        • Assumptions & Back-Testing
      • Portfolio Management & Accounting >
        • The InvestWise Reporting Series >
          • Portfolio Management Series
          • Financial Management Series
          • Econometric Series
        • "Total Return" Investment Strategy
      • Liquidity Risk Management
      • Capital Adequacy & Analysis
      • Dynamic Strategic Planning
      • Comprehensive Funds Management Policy
      • CECL Overview >
        • Historical Analysis
        • "Currently" Identifiable Risks
        • "Specific" Potential Risks
        • Potential "Future" Risks
        • Traditional Reserves vs CECL
      • General Consultation >
        • Holding Company Systems
        • Balance Sheet Pricing Strategies
        • Regulatory Reporting
    • What Our Clients Say
    • How We Interface
      • What happens when we become a Client?
      • How are Fees Determined?